<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Toby Crabel: Effort vs Result]]></title><description><![CDATA[Volume is effort. Range is result. This section explores what happens when they align and when they diverge.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/s/effort-vs-result</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OGlu!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Ftobycrabel.substack.com%2Fimg%2Fsubstack.png</url><title>Toby Crabel: Effort vs Result</title><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/s/effort-vs-result</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:57:11 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[tobycrabel@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[tobycrabel@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[tobycrabel@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[tobycrabel@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[EASE OF MOVEMENT AFTER ACCUMULATION AND DISTRIBUTION]]></title><description><![CDATA[Ease of movement usually appears after accumulation or after distribution has largely been completed, not during the trading range itself.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/ease-of-movement-after-accumulation</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/ease-of-movement-after-accumulation</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:08:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Ease of movement usually appears </span></strong><em><strong><span>after</span></strong></em><strong><span> accumulation or </span></strong><em><strong><span>after</span></strong></em><strong><span> distribution has largely been completed</span></strong><span>, not during the trading range itself.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Here&#8217;s why.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>After Accumulation</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>During accumulation, professional interests absorb available supply. The market often moves sideways because every attempt to decline is met with buying. Once enough supply has been absorbed, there is relatively little stock left for sale at those price levels.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>When demand finally exceeds the remaining supply, price advances </span><strong><span>with ease</span></strong><span>.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Characteristics include:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>Wide upward price spreads.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Successive higher highs and higher lows.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Relatively shallow reactions.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Good closes near the highs of bars.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Moderate or even declining volume that still produces strong upward progress.</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>This is true ease of upward movement. The market no longer has to fight through abundant supply because much of it has already been absorbed during the accumulation phase.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><div><hr></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>After Distribution</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The opposite occurs after distribution.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>During distribution, professionals gradually sell into public buying. The trading range exists because buying demand is still sufficient to absorb their selling.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Once distribution is complete and demand has been exhausted, the market begins to decline </span><strong><span>with ease</span></strong><span>.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Characteristics include:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>Wide downward price spreads.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Weak rallies.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Successively lower lows.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Good closes near the lows.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Selling that produces increasingly efficient downward movement.</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Supply now overwhelms demand because there are relatively few buyers left willing to absorb the selling.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png" width="1456" height="1549" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1549,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Klju!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c0ead0-d816-43ba-ab73-5003e03d4797_2256x2400.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 1: 8.7.2026 Nasdaq 5-minute. Distribution and breakout on ease of movement down.</span></p><div><hr></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>During the Trading Range</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Ironically, </span><strong><span>ease of movement is usually absent</span></strong><span> during accumulation and distribution themselves.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Instead, you&#8217;ll often see:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>overlapping bars,</span></p></li><li><p><span>failed breakouts,</span></p></li><li><p><span>tests,</span></p></li><li><p><span>springs or upthrusts,</span></p></li><li><p><span>alternating control between buyers and sellers.</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The lack of ease is actually evidence that a transfer of ownership is taking place.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><div><hr></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>David Weis&#8217; View</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Weis often emphasized that </span><strong><span>ease of movement is one of the best confirmations that the transfer of ownership has already occurred</span></strong><span>.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>He would ask questions such as:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>After accumulation, does price leave the range effortlessly?</span></p></li><li><p><span>Are reactions becoming smaller?</span></p></li><li><p><span>Does relatively modest buying produce large advances?</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Or after distribution:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>Does price fall easily?</span></p></li><li><p><span>Are rallies weak?</span></p></li><li><p><span>Does selling produce increasingly larger declines?</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>When the answer is yes, it suggests the market has completed its preparation and has entered the markup or markdown phase.</span></p><div><hr></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Wyckoff&#8217;s Sequence</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>A simplified sequence is:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Bullish</span></strong></p><ol><li><p><span>Accumulation</span></p></li><li><p><span>Tests and absorption</span></p></li><li><p><span>Breakout</span></p></li><li><p><strong><span>Ease of upward movement</span></strong></p></li><li><p><span>Markup</span></p></li></ol><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png" width="1456" height="1737" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1737,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eRE-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1aa6a211-8780-4654-9965-06d1b96b0374_2320x2768.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 2: Nasdaq 5-minute 8.7.2026. A second distribution area with an ease of movement breakout.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Bearish</span></strong></p><ol><li><p><span>Distribution</span></p></li><li><p><span>Tests and absorption</span></p></li><li><p><span>Breakdown</span></p></li><li><p><strong><span>Ease of downward movement</span></strong></p></li><li><p><span>Markdown</span></p></li></ol>
      <p>
          <a href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/ease-of-movement-after-accumulation">
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A STUDY OF THE LAW OF EFFORT VS RESULT ON THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE WEEKLY 1897 – 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[This study is applied to Richard Wyckoff&#8217;s Law of Effort versus Result using the Dow Jones Industrial Averages from the late 1800&#8217;s to present day.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/a-study-of-the-law-of-effort-vs-result</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/a-study-of-the-law-of-effort-vs-result</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 18:21:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>This study is applied to Richard Wyckoff&#8217;s Law of Effort versus Result using the Dow Jones Industrial Averages from the late 1800&#8217;s to present day. Wyckoff&#8217;s principle compares the magnitude of price movement with the volume required to produce it. Here, Effort vs Result is quantified by dividing relative range by relative volume, each measured against a five-week moving average. Readings above 1.00 generally indicate ease of movement; readings below 1.00 indicate laboring; readings near 1.00 suggest harmony. Used cumulatively, the measure becomes a diagnostic tool for identifying normal behavior, maladaptation, and potential turning points.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png" width="1456" height="1022" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1022,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uHi2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a411342-f49c-4dcc-9039-7fe39c688939_3120x2190.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 1: The weekly high, low, and close in 1896. There is no reading of relative range divided by relative volume, as there were no volume readings until the next year.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>A note on the charts. I am leaving only one indicator on the charts, that is the reading for Effort vs Result. This makes the study lean heavily on just &#8220;The Law of Effort vs Result&#8221; and the vertical bar for the period. This is a much-needed study in my opinion. The third law that Wyckoff developed in his work has not been given its due. This is meant to provide not only a quantitative reading of effort vs result, but a clear focus on the somewhat unexplored area of Wyckoff&#8217;s ideas.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>From this point forward, relative range divided by relative volume is referred to as Effort vs Result. Laboring often appears before turning points, but low readings can also occur within a sustained trend when the market absorbs opposing supply or demand. The strongest entry clue comes when prior laboring is followed by ease of movement, confirming that the path of least resistance has shifted. Until then, stable readings can support long trends. The absence of laboring, stopping volume, and an ease of movement indication opposite the trend begs for patience from the trader.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png" width="1456" height="1022" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1022,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-M5G!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc3417cf-acde-4c0b-b1c7-52de94c78f1d_3120x2190.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 2: Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average 1897, with Effort vs Result readings in the bottom histogram. Accumulation took place first with laboring on bar 16, and then a flat base over the next four weeks. Another labored week (bar 20) preceded the strong demand bar on 21. The rally from accumulation produced 14 consecutive higher weekly lows. Early confirmation came from the monthly (Chart 4) ease-of-movement reading, while the weekly readings confirmed strength later in the advance, several bars before the high of the move. Note: Three higher lows denote ease of movement up (bars 20-22).</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[THE THREE BAR REVERSAL (3BR+/-) AND EFFORT VS RESULT]]></title><description><![CDATA[The three bar reversal with ease of movement in bar three of the pattern is one of the better patterns I have seen in markets on all time frames.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/the-three-bar-reversal-3br-and-effort</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/the-three-bar-reversal-3br-and-effort</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 02 Aug 2026 15:56:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The three bar reversal with ease of movement in bar three of the pattern is one of the better patterns I have seen in markets on all time frames.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png" width="1456" height="1675" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1675,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3L9f!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F68062543-c0a5-4f84-a729-113294bf2f23_2486x2860.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 1: Nasdaq 5-minute chart with the Three Bar Reversal pattern (3BR+/-). When there is a high reading of effort vs result, it indicates that the market moved an unusually large magnitude for the amount of volume utilized.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>First, you would not want to go against ease of movement anyway, but when it also shows laboring on the middle bar (bar 2), it is an even stronger indication. If the first bar of the pattern has an effort vs result reading lower than bar 3, it is even more convincing. If bar 1 is also laboring along with bar 2, and then bar 3 reverses both bars completely, that is the strongest possibility.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Generally, I don&#8217;t have to have a pattern to trade, but the convenience of a three bar reversal is the risk management that is naturally provided with the pattern. In the case of a 3BR+ with ease of movement in bar 3, the stop can be placed below the low of the 3rd bar or below the low of the whole pattern, a more conservative stop. After a pattern like this, pullbacks should be used for long entries with stops at the crucial areas. If stopped out, you know there was a failure and an exit is a good decision.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png" width="1456" height="1448" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1448,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Jf1A!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13552c7c-844b-45ee-bdb1-d1ee9d11d527_2090x2078.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 2: A close-up of the reversal at (D), showing bars 1 and 2 laboring before bar 3 reverses with ease of movement.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The 3BR is related to the two-bar reversal (2BR), the four-bar reversal (4BR) and the outside bar (OB) which is a form of all the above in most cases. But with an outside bar, you want to be sure you get a significant reading of ease of movement. They are all frequently developing in major reversal areas.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[UNDERSTANDING WYCKOFF’S LAW OF EFFORT VERSUS RESULT]]></title><description><![CDATA[Richard D.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/understanding-wyckoffs-law-of-effort</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/understanding-wyckoffs-law-of-effort</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 03:06:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AjBi!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9c229782-a4df-4988-aa3e-90ad06ba939d_575x572.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Richard D. Wyckoff believed that one of the clearest windows into the true condition of the market was the relationship between </span><strong><span>effort</span></strong><span> and </span><strong><span>result</span></strong><span>. In its simplest form, </span><em><span>effort</span></em><span> is represented by the amount of buying or selling activity entering the market, most commonly observed through trading volume. </span><em><span>Result</span></em><span> is represented by the distance price travels in response to that effort, measured by the spread of the price bar, the progress of the trend, or the movement from one important price level to another.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The central idea is straightforward. When buying effort produces a proportional advance in price, or selling effort produces a proportional decline, the market is behaving normally. Buyers or sellers are accomplishing what would reasonably be expected. In these situations, effort and result are said to be </span><strong><span>in harmony</span></strong><span>, confirming the prevailing trend.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The most valuable information appears when harmony begins to disappear. If exceptionally large buying effort produces only a modest advance, the market is quietly suggesting that hidden selling may be absorbing demand. Conversely, if heavy selling fails to produce a meaningful decline, informed buying may be absorbing the available supply. These situations represent a </span><strong><span>divergence between effort and result</span></strong><span>, often providing one of the earliest indications that the market&#8217;s internal condition is beginning to change.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>It is important to understand that Effort versus Result does not predict the future. Instead, it evaluates the quality of the market&#8217;s present behavior. The law functions much like a diagnostic tool. Just as a physician looks for symptoms before diagnosing an illness, the Wyckoff analyst looks for changes in the relationship between effort and result before concluding that the balance between supply and demand has shifted. The divergence itself is not the signal to act; it is an invitation to observe more carefully and seek additional confirmation.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Another important aspect of Wyckoff&#8217;s law is that markets continually establish expectations through their own behavior. A healthy uptrend should respond positively to increased buying effort. A healthy downtrend should continue to respond to sustained selling pressure. When the market repeatedly fails to behave in accordance with these reasonable expectations, the analyst has objective evidence that the auction process may be entering a period of transition. Often, these subtle changes appear well before the eventual reversal or continuation becomes obvious.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Ultimately, the Law of Effort versus Result teaches traders to judge </span><strong><span>the quality of market performance rather than the appearance of price alone</span></strong><span>. Price tells us what happened. The relationship between effort and result tells us whether the market accomplished what it should reasonably have accomplished. That distinction makes the law one of the earliest and most valuable diagnostic tools available to the market analyst.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The table below provides many of the diagnostics that are derived from judging Effort vs Result in real time.</span></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[WHY THE LAW OF EFFORT VERSUS RESULT HAS ENDURED]]></title><description><![CDATA[One of the most remarkable characteristics of Richard D.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/why-the-law-of-effort-versus-result</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/why-the-law-of-effort-versus-result</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2026 22:18:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>One of the most remarkable characteristics of Richard D. Wyckoff&#8217;s Law of Effort versus Result is not simply that it has survived the dramatic transformation of financial markets over the past century, but that its practical value has arguably increased. Few concepts in technical analysis have demonstrated such resilience. Trading technologies have changed beyond anything Wyckoff could have imagined. Markets have grown exponentially in size and liquidity. Trading now occurs at electronic speeds measured in milliseconds, with sophisticated algorithms executing thousands of orders each second. Yet despite these extraordinary advances, the fundamental relationship between effort and result continues to reveal the underlying condition of the market.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png" width="1456" height="1621" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1621,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LAIY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ccbbfa5-0219-46cd-ae70-a693cb77c6ce_2501x2784.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart above: Nasdaq 5-minute chart 7.29.2026, with &#8220;Effort Vs Result&#8221; readings. The volume in this single market in one day probably dwarfs a month&#8217;s worth of total volume of all markets trading globally in 1905 when Wyckoff developed Effort vs Result.</span></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[READING THE MARKET WITH EFFORT VS RESULT]]></title><description><![CDATA[Reading the Market Story]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/reading-the-market-with-effort-vs</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/reading-the-market-with-effort-vs</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2026 19:26:06 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Reading the Market Story</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Each trading day brings a different market development. That can be confusing, and it requires imagination to understand&#8212;or at least form a working hypothesis about&#8212;what is happening in the moment. The supply-and-demand battle is always underway. Rising and falling prices help us judge the market&#8217;s condition, but it is the relationship between </span><strong><span>effort and result</span></strong><span>, interpreted in context, that allows us to build the market story.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>In today&#8217;s market, July 28, 2026, several areas showed ease of movement. The strongest ease-of-movement indication occurs when a market forms a trend bar with a wide range but without excessively high volume. In other words, price moves a meaningful distance without exhausting amounts of energy. When range and effort align that way, you have the basis for a trade.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Ease of Movement and Market Context</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>In the chart below, bars 2, 7, 8, 9, 16, and 22 all developed with effort-versus-result readings greater than 1.00. When this occurs, the next step is to evaluate both the direction of the bar and the surrounding market context. Properly interpreted, these readings provide a useful backdrop for entering on pullbacks and confirming the path of least resistance.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>If a buildup occurs before the ease-of-movement reading, it may provide the cause for a reasonably strong market swing. By contrast, when a market narrows while volume remains higher than normal for such narrow ranges, it often means the opposing force&#8212;supply or demand&#8212;is standing in front of the move. This condition is commonly described as </span><strong><span>churning</span></strong><span>or </span><strong><span>laboring</span></strong><span>.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Most price-swing highs and lows have some laboring quality. The key qualifying principle, however, is whether the market then shows ease of movement away from that area. Before entering countertrend in what appears to be a laboring zone, it is better to wait for ease of movement away from the area. Without that confirmation, there is no clear indication that the opposing force has succeeded in turning the market.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>If the opposing traders are forced to cover, their exits can intensify the trend. In that case, their buying or selling becomes fuel for continuation. This explains why trends can persist with readings below 1.00 for meaningful periods of the day&#8212;or on any trading time frame.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Laboring Bars, Failed Reversals, and Continuation</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>This is a crucial point in effort-versus-result analysis: when a market stalls, narrows, and produces low calculated readings, it is not enough to assume reversal. If the market does not reverse with ease, it remains subject to continuation in the direction that preceded the laboring bars.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>If the market absorbs the temporary supply or demand entering against the trend and then continues, it may trap the opposing force in an untenable position. From that point, those traders must at least consider that they may be wrong.</span></p><ul><li><p><span>Scalpers will usually cover losses quickly once the continuation becomes clear.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Larger traders, especially those viewing the move as a longer-term value trade, may hold longer.</span></p></li><li><p><span>If ease of movement appears with the trend after the laboring area, trading against that breakout becomes increasingly uncomfortable.</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Some of the most powerful trend moves occur after the market absorbs an opposing force&#8217;s attempt to reverse the trend, and that attempt fails.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Why Failed Reversals Strengthen the Trend</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>This is an important subtlety of a trending market: when the market fails to reverse, that failure itself becomes powerful confirmation of the trend. The confirmation is especially strong when the market then registers an ease-of-movement reading after the consolidation.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>That development forces the opposing side to reevaluate its strategy. As those traders work out of their positions, their exits provide additional impetus for the trend to extend further.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Evaluating Trapped Traders Within the Range</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>When evaluating potential, study the trading range. For example, in an uptrend, a narrow bar with a laboring reading below 1.00 may reveal something about the number of trapped traders in the market, depending on the time frame of those trading against the trend.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>If a re-accumulation area is developing and the market cannot move below a prior low, countertrend shorts may not get a chance to exit with a profitable scalp. If the market then makes a new high, they are forced to confront the prospect of a losing position. In that situation, the short-term group will often exit at the new high.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>When the Range Low Is Tested</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>On the other hand, if the market does take out the low of a developing trading range, short-term scalpers will likely take profits. That profit-taking can create a demand indication back through the low of the range.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>A thrust back up that recaptures the low of the range can then become the impetus for another drive to new highs within the trend.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Structure as Confirmation</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png" width="1456" height="1182" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1182,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wpB2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F702b6dd6-be76-4b8e-9810-a07b1b22e60e_2208x1792.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart above: ease of movement is even more useful when the structure also favors the trade. For instance, if a market shows shortening of thrust on a rally to new highs, then labors, and then comes off the high with range expansion but without excessive volume, that is a meaningful indication for sales.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>If a lower swing high then develops and is followed by another bearish bar with ease of movement, the market moves closer to a major trend reversal. A second lower high, accompanied by another bearish bar with a reading above 1.00, would make the case even stronger.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>As this structural evidence builds against the prior uptrend, the probability of a new trend increases considerably. Longer-term longs may begin to feel real indecision and pressure to liquidate, while shorts benefit from the selling that comes from the former demand crowd.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chapter 1 ]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Development of the Concept of Effort versus Result (1900&#8211;1935)]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/chapter-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/chapter-1</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 17:17:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Introduction</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Among Richard D. Wyckoff&#8217;s most enduring contributions to technical market analysis is the principle known today as Effort versus Result. Although modern students often encounter it as one of Wyckoff&#8217;s three fundamental laws, the concept did not appear fully developed at first. Instead, it evolved gradually over more than three decades of observation, research, and practical experience during one of the most dynamic periods in American financial history.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Between 1900 and 1935, Wyckoff transformed from a young tape reader and financial journalist into one of the most influential market theorists of his generation. Throughout that journey, his understanding of the relationship between trading activity and price movement became increasingly refined. What began as simple observations regarding unusual market behavior eventually matured into a comprehensive analytical framework capable of identifying accumulation, distribution, trend continuation, and major market reversals. The principle of Effort versus Result emerged directly from Wyckoff&#8217;s central objective: to understand the behavior of large professional operators and identify their activity before major price movements became obvious to the investing public.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>The Early Years: Tape Reading and Market Observation (1900&#8211;1910)</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>At the beginning of the twentieth century, Wyckoff devoted himself to studying the ticker tape. Although traders of the era did not have access to the detailed volume statistics available today, the tape itself revealed an extraordinary amount of information regarding transactions, price changes, and market activity. Wyckoff quickly noticed that markets did not always respond to buying and selling pressure in the manner most traders expected.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>On many occasions, exceptionally heavy trading produced surprisingly little movement in price. At other times, relatively modest activity generated substantial advances or declines. These recurring inconsistencies challenged the prevailing assumption that high volume automatically represented strength and low volume automatically represented weakness. Instead of concentrating solely on the amount of activity taking place, Wyckoff began asking a far more important question: </span><strong><span>What is the market accomplishing relative to the effort being expended?</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>That simple question became the intellectual foundation of what would eventually become the Law of Effort versus Result.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>During these formative years, Wyckoff repeatedly observed situations in which tremendous buying activity failed to generate meaningful advances. Such behavior suggested that hidden selling interests were quietly absorbing demand. Likewise, large waves of selling sometimes failed to produce substantial declines, indicating that informed buyers were quietly accumulating shares beneath the surface. Although Wyckoff had not yet formalized these observations into a unified principle, the essential logic of Effort versus Result had already begun to emerge.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png" width="1456" height="955" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:955,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bzlR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53d534b5-390e-453f-b3f4-8e6e8050d302_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 1: The Dow Jones Averages 1900-1911. Wyckoff was still formulating the concept of Effort vs Result at this time. This is what he would have seen. Using ATR as a proxy for effort vs result, you can see significant narrowing of ranges (below average) either at a test of an extreme or on the exact extreme. We can assume to some extent that volume would have been higher than usual.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>The Composite Operator Emerges (1910&#8211;1920)</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>As Wyckoff&#8217;s research expanded, his attention increasingly shifted from individual transactions to the activities of large professional interests. Through careful study of legendary operators such as Jesse Livermore, James R. Keene, E. H. Harriman, and other influential financiers, he became convinced that major market movements were rarely random. Instead, they reflected carefully planned campaigns conducted by well-capitalized professionals acting with deliberate purpose.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>To simplify his analysis, Wyckoff began treating these large interests as though they were a single market participant, a concept that later became known as the </span><strong><span>Composite Operator</span></strong><span>. This framework transformed the way he interpreted market behavior. Trading volume became evidence of professional activity, while price movement represented the visible result of that activity. The relationship between the two assumed central importance.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>When substantial buying activity generated strong upward price movement, effort and result were considered to be in harmony. Likewise, heavy selling accompanied by decisive declines confirmed that supply remained dominant. However, whenever unusually large trading activity failed to produce the expected price response, Wyckoff recognized that hidden forces were operating beneath the surface. Such divergences frequently preceded important turning points because they revealed that one side of the auction was quietly absorbing the efforts of the other.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>By the end of this period, Wyckoff had shifted his emphasis away from the simple measurement of volume and toward evaluating its effectiveness. The critical question was no longer, &#8220;How much trading occurred?&#8221; but rather, &#8220;What did that trading actually accomplish?&#8221;</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Formalization Through Supply and Demand (1920&#8211;1930)</span></strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png" width="1456" height="955" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/db9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:955,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Md9h!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdb9cad0c-6b79-4f76-bf83-81cb78311c6a_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 2: The Dow Jones Industrial Average&#8217;s 1920 through 1922 daily. In 1921, an important low point was etched out. Note that at the low, and on the test (the circled areas on the chart), ranges were well below average. This was the start of the 1920&#8217;s super bull market. This pattern is the earmark of accumulation or distribution.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The 1920s marked a period of significant refinement in Wyckoff&#8217;s analytical framework. Increasingly, he organized his market observations around the universal law of supply and demand. Price movement came to be understood as the visible expression of the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers, while volume represented the intensity of that struggle.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Within this framework, the concept of Effort versus Result acquired a precise meaning. </span><strong><span>Effort</span></strong><span> was represented primarily by trading activity and volume, while </span><strong><span>Result</span></strong><span> was measured by the amount of price progress achieved, including the size of price spreads and the distance traveled by the market.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>When effort and result remained proportional, the prevailing trend was considered healthy. Expanding volume accompanied by strong advances confirmed a healthy bull trend, while increasing volume accompanied by decisive declines confirmed persistent bearish control.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Far greater analytical value, however, was found in situations where effort and result diverged. Wyckoff observed that enormous trading volume sometimes produced only limited price progress. Such behavior suggested that professional interests were quietly distributing shares into enthusiastic public buying. Similarly, exceptionally heavy selling that generated only modest declines indicated that hidden institutional demand was absorbing virtually all available supply.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The opposite condition proved equally informative. Sharp advances occurring on relatively modest volume suggested that very little supply remained available for sale. Likewise, rapid declines on comparatively light volume often reflected an absence of buying interest rather than unusually aggressive selling.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>These observations led Wyckoff to conclude that volume should never be interpreted independently. Its significance depended entirely upon the effect it produced on price.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>The Crash of 1929 and Validation of the Principle</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The events surrounding the 1929 stock market peak provided dramatic confirmation of Wyckoff&#8217;s developing theory. Throughout many leading stocks, trading activity expanded dramatically while price progress became increasingly limited. Enormous effort was required to produce ever smaller advances.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>To the casual observer, heavy volume appeared bullish because prices were still advancing. Wyckoff, however, interpreted the situation very differently. He recognized that professional operators were quietly distributing stock into widespread public optimism. The inability of price to respond proportionally to increasing activity revealed growing internal weakness long before the subsequent collapse became obvious.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The market was communicating that demand remained visible, but its effectiveness had deteriorated significantly because professional supply was quietly absorbing it. These events reinforced Wyckoff&#8217;s conviction that the relationship between effort and result provided one of the most reliable methods available for evaluating the true condition of the market.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png" width="1456" height="955" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:955,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CdAZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517b1db1-abc3-4ba9-8930-7b5ef470ae29_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 3: The Dow Jones Industrial Average weekly 1928 through 1929. At the high of the 1929 bull market there was a significant narrowing of range but with high volume (1). The following week extended slightly to a new high and then formed an outside bar down. There was intense distribution on both bars, and it continued for the two weeks off the top.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>The Three Laws and the Final Formulation (1930&#8211;1935)</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>During the early 1930s, Wyckoff and his associates organized his lifetime of research into a systematic educational methodology. The principle of Effort versus Result became one of the three foundational laws of the Wyckoff Method, alongside the Law of Supply and Demand and the Law of Cause and Effect.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png" width="1456" height="955" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:955,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTWK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F916f550b-2a83-41c6-807b-907447231eb4_2000x1312.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 4: The Dow Jones Industrial Average late 1931 through mid-1933. The 1932 low of the largest bear market in history provided a classic case of laboring at the extreme. Bars 1-6 in the above weekly chart show clear narrowing. This narrowing gives opportunity for maximum accumulation at good price levels. The volume was significantly lower at the lows; the public was not present. But the professionals were acquiring.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>In its mature form, the Law of Effort versus Result stated that the relationship between volume and price movement reveals the underlying condition of the market. Harmony between effort and result confirms the existing trend, while divergence between them warns that change may be approaching.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The principle became an essential tool for identifying accumulation, detecting distribution, confirming trends, recognizing exhaustion, and anticipating reversals. More importantly, it provided traders with a practical method for inferring the intentions of the Composite Operator through publicly observable market behavior rather than relying upon rumor, news, or opinion.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong><span>Conclusion</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Between 1900 and 1935, Richard D. Wyckoff transformed the concept of Effort versus Result from a series of practical tape-reading observations into one of the central pillars of technical market analysis. Its evolution mirrored his broader intellectual journey, moving from the observation of individual transactions to the understanding of institutional campaigns and the strategic behavior of professional market operators.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The enduring strength of the principle lies in its remarkable simplicity. Market activity alone has little meaning. What truly matters is what that activity accomplishes. When effort and result remain in harmony, the market confirms the strength of the prevailing trend. When they diverge, the market begins revealing hidden forces that often precede significant changes in direction.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>More than a century after Wyckoff first developed these ideas, the Law of Effort versus Result remains one of the most powerful analytical tools available to traders. Although markets have evolved dramatically, institutions continue to leave recognizable footprints through the relationship between volume and price. By learning to interpret that relationship, modern traders can still observe the intentions of professional money long before those intentions become obvious to the broader market.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[EFFORT VERSUS RESULT CALCULATION ON THE 1929 TOP]]></title><description><![CDATA[The way I look at Effort vs Result is in relative terms.]]></description><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/effort-versus-result-calculation</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/effort-versus-result-calculation</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:49:25 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yqzT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9d245dc-eb3d-4452-8094-a2f5cf4a021b_2016x1536.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The way I look at Effort vs Result is in relative terms. I have a benchmark reading for both relative volume and relative range, and then I divide relative range by relative volume. This provides objective readings that are either above or below 1.00. A reading above 1.00 suggests the range was bigger than the volume expended, in relative terms. A reading below 1.00 suggests progress was relatively small for the volume, or effort, expended. To derive readings for the 1929 top I had to calculate volume manually, but was able to display relative range on the histogram below the price chart.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yqzT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9d245dc-eb3d-4452-8094-a2f5cf4a021b_2016x1536.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yqzT!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9d245dc-eb3d-4452-8094-a2f5cf4a021b_2016x1536.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yqzT!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9d245dc-eb3d-4452-8094-a2f5cf4a021b_2016x1536.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yqzT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9d245dc-eb3d-4452-8094-a2f5cf4a021b_2016x1536.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yqzT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9d245dc-eb3d-4452-8094-a2f5cf4a021b_2016x1536.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img 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stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Chart 1: The Dow Jones Industrial Average for six months in 1929, including the high and the start of the 1929-1932 bear market.</span></p><p>The readings were true to form: very high on the rally into the top, very low while making the all-time high, and high again <span>at the start of the crash. Relative volume was high with relative range stunted at the high. There were four weeks of readings below 1.00 at the high. What I conclude is that there were four weeks of distribution at this historical level.</span></p><p><span>A word about this method of quantifying effort vs result. The idea of comparing volume and range as a ratio to an average is a handy tool for creating objective, apples-to-apples readings. This process simplifies the analysis considerably. This work was a gruesome hand-done project, and it does one thing of great importance: it emphasizes that laboring is a common factor in distribution. Additionally, I have found that prior to this period and after, if there is no churning at the tops or bottoms, it will most certainly show up 90% of the time on the first test of the market high or low. So in practice there needs to be a stopping point where the strong hands are taking control of the market. The footprint is relatively high volume, or big effort, with minimal result on both the highs and lows and the tests of each. It is a powerful forewarning of reversals.</span></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://tobycrabel.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[EFFORT VS RESULT AT FOUR MAJOR HIGHS IN SILVER]]></title><link>https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/effort-vs-result-at-four-major-highs</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobycrabel.substack.com/p/effort-vs-result-at-four-major-highs</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Crabel]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:40:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B7s9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a219fb4-85c3-48fd-ac0d-bfe78d3ae793_1024x1268.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B7s9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a219fb4-85c3-48fd-ac0d-bfe78d3ae793_1024x1268.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!B7s9!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a219fb4-85c3-48fd-ac0d-bfe78d3ae793_1024x1268.png 424w, 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